Oil prices could climb to $90/bbl should Iran conflict persist - UBS

Oil prices could climb above $90 per barrel should the shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz due to ongoing fighting in the Middle East be prolonged, according to analysts at UBS.

On Friday, crude prices were on track to notch hefty weekly gains, as traders remain worried that the conflict between Iran and joint U.S.-Israeli forces will close off the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. 

In a move to ease some these concerns, the U.S. has announced it would allow the sale of Russian oil to India for a period of 30 days. The U.S. Treasury Department is also anticipated to unveil measures aimed at corralling energy prices through financial markets, Reuters has reported.

Brent crude futures had last climbed by 4% to $88.85/bbl, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped by 5.3% to $85.31/bbl.

Writing in a note, the analysts including Mark Haefele and Giovanni Staunovo said they do not see current oil price levels as a "stable equilibrium."

"If shipping disruptions persist or infrastructure is further damaged, prices could move higher, potentially exceeding $90/bbl," they wrote.

Faced with the prospect of increased gas prices in the U.S., some investors have begun to worry that prolonged may spark a surge in inflationary pressures, which could delay the timeline for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year. U.S. bond yields have risen, denting stocks.

However, the UBS analysts argued that prices would need to remain elevated for several months before "materially affecting growth or inflation."

They added, should hostilities cease, oil prices are likely to moderate, with Brent crude returning to the "$60/bbl to $70/bbl range."

Few signs have emerged that the conflict will soon ease. Israel launched strikes at Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and targeted Tehran on Friday, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched its own barrage of drones and missiles at Tel Aviv, media reports said.